Why Didn’t Iran Go To War With The U.S.?

In December 2019 and early January 2020:

- The Iranians killed a U.S. contractor
- The U.S. killed Iranian General Soleimani
- The Iranians fired missiles at a Coalition Air Base in Iraq, killing no one

After President Trump’s 8 January statement, it looks like there won’t be war. Other things like economic sanctions and limited strikes might happen, but no escalation to war.

Why not?

In the history books, you read about situations like this. One side prods the other side. The side prodded responds with an escalation. The first side responds to the escalation, and they end up in a war.

But it doesn’t stop there. The two sides call in their allies, and the allies start to fight, too. Everyone ends up in a bigger war. Even, a world war.

Why didn’t that happen this time?

In my previous post, I talked about the importance of alliances (available on Medium here).

Nations build alliances in order to win wars. Wars are the reason alliances exist. Without the prospect of a war, there’d be no reason to have an alliance. And without an alliance, you can’t win most wars.

When you join an alliance, you agree to pool resources. You agree to make joint decisions on what to do with those resources. And you agree to decide together whether to go to war.

Which means each member of the alliance is constrained by the other members of the alliance. No part of the alliance can act alone without risk of losing their membership in the alliance.

That constraint is likely why there was no war between Iran and the U.S.

The U.S. was constrained by allies, yes. But more importantly, Iran was likely constrained by a key ally.

You may have heard that the 2022 FIFA World Cup was awarded to Qatar. There was a lot of controversy about that decision, including allegations of bribery. And now, there are charges that slave labor is being used to build the stadiums in Qatar. There has already been talk of taking the 2022 World Cup away from Qatar.

Which means Qatar is on edge. Qatar doesn’t want to lose what they spent so much to win. They don’t want to lose the 2022 World Cup.

And Qatar is an ally of Iran. Maybe, Iran’s strongest ally.

What’s the last thing Qatar wants before 2022?

A war between its ally Iran and the U.S. Because if there’s a war, the U.S. and its allies will make sure Qatar loses its World Cup.

Did Qatar use its influence with Iran to stop a war between Iran the U.S.? I don’t know.

But I know Qatar wants to keep the 2022 World Cup more than anything. They would have used everything they have to keep it.

The final step in the tit-for-tat between Iran and the U.S. was an attack on a coalition airbase in which no one was killed. In fact, there are reports that Iran warned the Iraqis who warned the U.S. that the attack was coming, so they could be sure all U.S. soldiers were out of harm’s way.

Iran’s final move in that sequence was to strike in a way that made sure no American was hurt.

They did it that way because President Trump hasn’t reacted when Iranians have damaged property or weapons — Trump has only reacted when Iranians have killed Americans.

When you look at strategies, look for alliances.

Look for the interests of each member of the alliance.

And look for the constraints stopping each member from going alone.

— — —

If you don’t have a copy yet, A Spy’s Guide To Strategy is on sale this week.